Not So Obvious Locks | NFL Week 4

29 September 2023 • by Neal Maligno

‘Not so obvious locks’ are players who are not ranked in the top 10 this week, but who in my opinion, have the upside to finish there. If you want longer or interactive content, then subscribe to us on YouTube and catch our weekly episodes, including our start/sit advice live stream every Sunday at 11:30AM EST!

I like to hold my self accountable and stay transparent at all times, so here are last weeks NSOL’s and how they performed.

— Texans QB CJ Stroud finished as QB12 with 20.6 points scored

— Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco finished as RB12 with 15.8 points scored

— Ravens WR Zay Flowers finished as WR35 with 13 points scored

— Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson finished as TE11 with 9.8 points scored

Now let’s get into Week 4!

QB: Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford is going up against the Colts defense that has faced Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud and Lamar Jackson. While Stafford has thrown too many interceptions this season, through 3 weeks, the Colts defense has only come up with 1.

Even without Cooper Kupp, Stafford has thrown for a good amount of yards to Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell, so yards won’t be a problem to come by. I can see Stafford throwing for 300 yards and at least 2 TDs, if he limits the interceptions like I expect, Stafford has top 10 upside and is my week 4 not so obvious lock of the week at QB.

RB: Khalil Herbert

I refuse to give up on Khalil Herbert this soon into the season. The Bears have not had the start I expected in 2023, but with the Broncos coming to town in week 4, the offense will aim to get things back on track. We saw the Broncos get ATE UP in week 3 by the Dolphins offense and while we can’t expect another team to put up 70 points against them, the Broncos are the perfect defense for Khalil Herbert to have a breakout game against.

I expect the Bears to let Khalil Herbert set the tone this week against a defense that gave up 351 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs in week 3. It’s easy to kick them while they are down, but I’m standing tall with Herbert as my not so obvious lock of week 4 at RB.

WR: Tutu Atwell

This is a first for me, I’m stacking a QB and WR from the Rams as my not so obvious lock, by choosing Tutu Atwell in week 4. With Cooper Kupp out, Tutu’s workload has been consistent this season and so have his results of 15+ points in ppr each week. The Colts defense hasn’t been the best secondary this season, so a playmaker like Tutu has as much of a shot for big plays this week as anybody.

While he doesn’t rank inside anyone’s top 20 at WR, he’s currently WR14 in PPR scoring. Tutu is my not so obvious lock of week 4 because I trust his workload and production, until the Rams and Tutu give me a reason not to.

TE: Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas missed last week with a concussion, but has returned to face an Eagles defense that gave up big weeks to both Hunter Henry and T.J. Hockenson. Thomas is TE20 in PPR scoring after missing a week, so once he has a good game vs the Eagles, he will make a jump up the scoring leaders list back to where he belongs.

QB Sam Howell mentioned how much he missed Logan Thomas when he was out last week, so there’s no doubt the talented TE is a big part of the game plan as one of Sam Howell’s favorite targets every week he steps on the field. 

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